ASML Q2 Preview: Building Momentum into 2027-28

Research evidence excerpt

ASML Q2 Preview: Building Momentum into 2027-28

.53

~23% YoY decline, versus our estimate of -12% and UBSe China WFE growth of ~7%. 12/27E 48.42 52.90 9 42.94

While lithography shipments are down ~24% YoY year-to-date, we expect a stronger 12/28E 59.73 68.02 14 50.85

H2 supported by memory strength, capacity expansions at CXMT and YMTC, and AI-

Francois-Xavier Bouvigniesdriven demand in advanced logic. As fab readiness improves, these factors should

Analyst

support a recovery in shipments, assuming no further export restrictions. francois.bouvignies@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 7105

3) Renewed focus on capacity

Nicolas Gaudois

Last quarter, ASML indicated capacity of 80+ systems for 27, vs buy-side expectations of Analyst

roughly 90–100 tools. We expect management to highlight improving demand visibility nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com

versus the prior quarter and to reiterate its ability to flex capacity to meet demand as +65-6495 5148

needed. We expect positive comments around capacity to meet demand to be key.

Harry Blaiklock, CFA

Forecast changes harry.blaiklock@ubs.com

We increase our EPS by 9% in 2027E and 14% in 2028E to reflect stronger memory +44-20-7568 5385

revenues +50% y-o-y / 0% y-o-y in 27/28E (was +35%/+10%), Advanced logic +47%/

+36% (was +34%/+18%) and China +28%/+11% (was +18%/+15%).

Valuation: DCF-based price target €2,100/share (WACC 9%, g3%)

ASML trades on 30x/24x P/E 27E/28E vs 10Y average of 30x and -8% discount vs

US peers vs c83% history. Our price target increases from €1,900 to €2,100/share.

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 27,559 28,263 32,667 39,392 55,690 66,869 67,484 72,264

EBIT (UBS) 9,082 9,063 11,342 15,147 23,793 30,243 30,927 33,539

Net earnings (UBS) 7,681 7,395 9,426 12,798 20,087 25,505 26,080 28,274