European Insurance News & Views: Tryg 2Q26 preview

Research evidence excerpt

European Insurance News & Views: Tryg 2Q26 preview

Global Research

1 July 2026ab

European Insurance News & Views Equities

Europe including UKTryg 2Q26 preview

Financial

Qian Lu

Headline: Tryg 2Q26 preview Analyst

qian-za.lu@ubs.com

Tryg is due to report 2Q26 results on 10th July. We set out our expectations and compare +44-20-7567 4657

our estimates to Visible Alpha consensus ahead of the event. Will Hardcastle, CFA

Analyst

will.hardcastle@ubs.com

UBS Summary:

+44-20-7567 9763

Nasib Ahmed, FIA

We are -15% below VA cons. 2Q26E earnings, which looks to be mainly driven by cons. Analyst

not fully updated for the impact from the pre-announced reserves strengthening for nasib-za.ahmed@ubs.com

Danish Workers Comp (see here). +44-20-7568 8231

Revenue growth: we forecast 3.7% revenue growth in local currency, a small Chloe Ryan

improvement vs the 3.5% reported at 1Q, with FX boosting the headline growth Associate Analyst

to 5.3%; chloe.ryan@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 3505

Underlying claims ratio: we forecast a 40bps underlying improvement YoY at

Group level driven by a 40bps improvement in Private and 60bps in Commercial.

This is broadly in line with the trends seen at 1Q;

Investment: lower interest rates (c.-25bps on average) and covered bond spread

tightening (c.-7.5bps) were positive for Match portfolio returns, leaving us 177%

(c.DKK 185m) ahead of cons. on investment result, noting VA cons. not fully live.

Average interest rates over 2Q were, however, higher than those of 1Q, leading to

higher discounting benefit in the combined ratio;

Solvency: Tryg has guided to c.-4ppts solvency impact from the Danish Workers

Comp provisions, which incorporates capital management actions (offset from

release of profit margins in the own funds) and secondary impacts on the SCR. We