First Read Associated British Foods: Conference call feedback

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Associated British Foods: Conference call feedback

By UBS Cons.

contrast, Continental Europe remains slower to improve, with disappointment on 09/26E 150.46 156.07

progress that has not come through faster despite early positive signs from marketing 09/27E 152.35 166.57

and price perception actions. Performance also varied materially by geography: Iberia 09/28E 169.34 184.46

was better, France and Italy remained difficult, Eastern Europe was still good, and

Northern Europe, including Germany, Austria and the Netherlands, was soft as Sreedhar Mahamkali

Analyst

consumer caution weighed on shopping. In the US, Manhattan was described as having

sreedhar.mahamkali@ubs.com

started strong, but openings in Memphis and Nashville were disappointing. +44-20-7568 8040

Sugar - drivers on profit guidance Yashraj Rajani, CFA

ABF quantified the gas exposure more clearly, noting that European gas cost was c75p yashraj.rajani@ubs.com

per unit this year versus c100-105p currently, with a profit sensitivity of c£6-7m for every +44-20-7901 5662

10p move; if prices remain around current levels, this would affect both FY27e profit and

Fatima Ortiz Nunez

FY26e onerous contract recognition. The call also clarified that the £60m FY26 loss case Associate Analyst

includes c£25m from a potential Malawi kwacha devaluation, while a slower Tanzania fatima.ortiz-nunez@ubs.com

mill ramp-up could be a single-digit £m headwind. On FY27, management’s central +44-20-7901 6085

assumption is for a result worse than the potential £60m FY26 loss, partly because any

Malawi devaluation or onerous contract charge not recognised in FY26 would

effectively shift into next year. While ABF took comfort from European Commission