Haleon Q2 Preview: Margins to surprise positively in H1

Research evidence excerpt

Haleon Q2 Preview: Margins to surprise positively in H1

BP)

trends in Europe and Middle East disruption partly offsetting improving performance in

From To % ch Cons.

LatAm (new activations) (see detailed forecasts for the region on the next page). In 12/26E 0.21 0.21 2 0.21

APAC, we expect OSG +5.3%, accelerating from Q1 +4.0% as China reaccelerates back 12/27E 0.23 0.23 2 0.22

to +HSD and India continues to perform strongly. By Product category, we expect Oral 12/28E 0.24 0.25 2 0.25

Health to keep driving growth (Q2 +7%) driven by geo expansion and innovations. We

forecast Pain Relief and Respiratory Health to return to growth (+0.3% and +2.0%), the Guillaume Delmas

latter also lapping weakness in Smokers Health, while VMS will be broadly in line with Analyst

guillaume.delmas@ubs.com

Q1. In terms of margins, we model H1 +160bps adj. op. margin expansion, driven by

+44-20-7568 8568

strong gross margin expansion (productivity programme, limited input cost inflation,

incremental pricing). Andrei Condrea

Analyst

andrei.condrea@ubs.com

FY26 Guidance likely to be reiterated

+44-20-7568 5061

We expect Haleon to reiterate its FY26 guidance of 3-5% organic sales growth and

high-single digit constant-FX operating profit growth. However, we see the bottom-half

of the topline guidance as more likely (VA cons for 3.6%); that said, we model a H2 OSG

acceleration to 4.2% reflecting: 1) gradual acceleration in North America (full benefit

from shelf reset from Q3 onwards); 2) sequential improvement in the Middle East; 3)

strengthening momentum in emerging markets as Haleon continues to step up its brand

support and 4) a favourable basis of comparison in Q4 (Q4 2025 was Haleon's weakest

OSG quarter since its listing in July 2022). Change to estimates: We cut our FY26 OSG