Greek Banks: Sector Keys: Greek Banks

Research evidence excerpt

Greek Banks: Sector Keys: Greek Banks

Greek banks

Beneficiaries of macro recovery, deployment of capital unlocking

value, new plans provide certainty, valuations relatively attractive

UBS Greek banks key figures and valuations

anks k gures luations

UBS G reek b

ey fi and va

Source: UBS estimates. Pricing data as of 26 June 2026 close.

UBS Sector view: The Greek banks benefit from the macro recovery in Greece and strong corporate credit trends. We see deployment of capital as the next key catalyst, a combination of

bolt-on acquisitions and higher distributions. Valuations are looking relatively attractive in a European banks context.

Fundamentals: The banks look well placed to benefit from a continued strong investment cycle enabled by European RRF funds and continued solid macro trends. We see a structural

corporate credit cycle with performing loan growth forecast at ~8% pa (FY25-FY28E). NIMs have troughed with NII growth to accelerate as loan growth comes through. The outlook for

strong F&C income growth also supports revenue in the medium term. NPEs have largely normalised and we see credit risk remaining benign. Capital continues to accrete enabling higher

distributions and acquisitions.

Macro: We view GDP growth as relatively attractive in a European context with strong fiscal management further helping to offset near-term cyclical risks from the Middle East conflict. A

strong, structural investment cycle is a key driver, catalysed by RRF funds (Greece qualifying for €36bn). Key industries such as tourism and shipping continue to perform well, although

worth monitoring.

Valuations: The sector has recovered from the lows since the start of the Middle East conflict, but valuations remain relatively attractive, in our view, with PEs at a discount to European

banks.