Carlsberg A/S Q2/H1 26 results preview: downside risk to Q2 volumes but profits in line

Research evidence excerpt

Carlsberg A/S Q2/H1 26 results preview: downside risk to Q2 volumes but profits in line

h to a lesser degree than Q1. We expect continued solid growth in From To % ch Cons.

the soft drinks business across the UK and Nordics; 2) Asia (UBSe -0.3% vs cons 12/26E 67.09 67.24 0 64.53

12/27E 70.70 71.98 2 70.25

+2.3%): We forecast China volumes to be flattish despite easier comparatives, due to

12/28E 77.11 78.32 2 75.99

less favourable weather since end May impacting the start of peak season. We expect

growth in Vietnam and Laos to remain positive, although moderating versus Q1, whilst Sanjeet Aujla

Cambodia soft drinks remains a drag; 3) Central, Eastern Europe, and India (UBSe Analyst

+7.4% vs cons +6.4%): We forecast continued DD% growth in India and Nepal, more sanjeet.aujla@ubs.com

than offsetting moderating declines in Ukraine due to the escalating conflict. We expect +44-20-7567 4529

the Q2 volume contribution from Pepsi bottling in Kazakhstan to accelerate to 6.5pp to Arnaud Autier

the region (c2pp group), from Q1 c4pp/1pp respectively. We forecast H1 +5.1% group Associate Analyst

organic EBIT growth (+30bps org EBIT margin expansion), in line with consensus, with arnaud.autier@ubs.com

strong margin expansion in CEEI more than offsetting decline in Asia. +44-20-7901 6849

Valuation:1 Carlsberg trades on 2027E c12.3x P/E and c16.2x EV/NOPAT, a -22%/-8%

discount vs European Staples (or -28%/-4% vs ABI and Heineken). 2026/27E levered FCF

yield is 6.6%/7.6%.

Highlights (DKrm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 73,585 75,011 89,095 93,004 96,941 100,756 103,258 107,300

EBIT (UBS) 10,524 10,795 13,336 14,207 15,144 16,036 16,323 17,245

Net earnings (UBS) 7,425 7,280 8,060 8,888 9,514 10,240 10,435 11,115