Iron Ore & Coal: How are Simandou shipments tracking in June?

Research evidence excerpt

Iron Ore & Coal: How are Simandou shipments tracking in June?

Iron Ore & Coal UBS Research

Jun-Q Production Preview

We estimate Jun-Q iron ore shipments of the major iron ore & coal producers based on

UBS Evidence Lab data to 28 June (> Access Dataset); this is grossed up for the remaining

days in the quarter.

RIO reports 2Q production on 14-Jul at 23:30 (UK time): UBS Evidence Lab data

points to Pilbara shipments being +2Mt y/y to 82Mt. The impacts from cyclones/

weather disruptions across the Pilbara region to date is expected to be ~8Mt

(milder vs ~13Mt last year; per RIO news release), which it has mitigation plans in

place for "around half over the course of the year". RIO maintains the 2026

production guidance range at 323-338Mt (+5Mt y/y at mid-point); LTM shipments

are tracking at ~330Mt though we recognise it is still early in the year. Simandou

projects remain on track with a meaningful step-up in shipment from May/Jun

(Figure 12Simandoumonthlyshipments,Mt); though sales is only recognised after tertiary crushing in China.

BHP reports 4Q production on 15-Jul at 23:30 (UK time): UBS Evidence Lab data

points to WAIO shipments at -2Mt y/y in Jun-Q to 75Mt. BHP reiterated FY26

guidance of 284-296Mt, with the mid point up 2Mt y/y; LTM shipments are

tracking at ~288Mt/ slightly below the mid-point of the range. Coal shipments out

of Hay Point are tracking higher y/y at ~11Mt in 4Q; with LTM tracking towards

~37Mt vs the FY26 guidance of 36-40Mt (100% basis).

FMG reports 4Q production on 23-Jul (AU morning): UBS Evidence Lab data points

to shipments being flat y/y in Jun-Q to 54Mt. Following 3Q production in Apr-26,

overall FY26 guidance is unchanged at 195-205Mt but Iron Bridge is downgraded

to 9-10Mt (from 10-12Mt); FMG appears on track to achieve this with