Miners‘ Price Review: More than just an AI story

Research evidence excerpt

Miners‘ Price Review: More than just an AI story

Ding

constraints vs resilient demand from energy transition is unchanged & arguably more Analyst

sharon.ding@ubs.comcompelling after the ME conflict. We acknowledge visible inventories are elevated but

+852-2971 6284

much of this (in US) may not be available to the market and the potential for strategic

stockpiling limits near-term downside in a weaker underlying demand environment. Steve Friedman

Although weaker demand vs resilient smelter output has reduced near-term deficits, we Analyst

steve.friedman@ubs.comremain constructive on the long-term outlook. We have good visibility on limited mine

+27-11-322 7252

supply over the next 1-3yrs (with higher capex & FIDs to impact supply from 2030s) and

expect resilient demand to drive deficits that will erode elevated inventories and support Amy Yi Li

sustainable price upside. Preferred equities: Freeport, First Quantum, Anglo & Teck. Analyst

amy-yi.li@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 2064

Lithium: we remain bullish despite near-term concerns focused on rising battery

George Eadie

inventories, an uncertain supply response and weak China NEV sales. We recently

Analyst

marked-to-market CY26/27e prices down but remain bullish lithium price momentum george.eadie@ubs.com

(note). We remain positive across our lithium equity coverage still seeing strong FCF +1-646-996 4596

yields and valuation support. Top picks: Liontown, IGO & Albemarle.

Dim Ariyasinghe

Uranium equities continue to trade as a "derivative" of the broader AI & energy dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com

dynamics and have traded down ~10-20% since April despite uranium fundamentals +61-3-9242 6385

getting stronger (note) as reflected in long-term contract prices (now at record highs of Andrew Jones

~$95/lb).