Global Macro Chart of the Day (#112): Changes in US national accounts seem designed to lower inflation

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Chart of the Day (#112): Changes in US national accounts seem designed to lower inflation

Global Research

29 June 2026ab

Global Macro Chart of the Day Economics

Global(#112): Changes in US national accounts seem

designed to lower inflation Arend Kapteyn

Economist

arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

Methodological changes could lower PCE inflation by 21bp (and core by 23bp)

Last week the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)—a government agency within the

Department of Commerce—announced changes to be incorporated into the national

accounts at this year’s annual revision on September 30. Among them are revisions to

source data for several of the 242 price series used to construct PCE inflation (recall that

the BEA produces PCE—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—while the Bureau of

Labor Statistics produces CPI).

While some revisions appear justified, the changes raise two concerns in our view. First,

the selected series appear skewed toward lowering core PCE inflation: two of the three

revisions affect two of the four largest contributors to core PCE (portfolio management

and investment advice services, and computer software and accessories). Second, the

new methodologies are not clearly specified and are therefore more susceptible to

manipulation. We think the lack of transparency around how these series will be

constructed will limit the ability of external analysts to forecast and corroborate official

inflation data.

Alan Detmeister, in a more detailed note, estimates that the revised source data could

lower headline PCE inflation by 21bp and core PCE by 23bp. Most of the downward

impact comes from changes to portfolio management and investment advice prices (–

19bp for headline, –21bp for core), followed by computer software and accessories (–