India Power: Generation planning - China vs. India ... and Center vs. State govt...

Research evidence excerpt

India Power: Generation planning - China vs. India ... and Center vs. State govt...

NSTEIN FLASHMAIL

1 July 2026

India Industrials and Infrastructure

Nikhil Nigania +91 226 842 1414 nikhil.nigania@bernsteinsg.com

Aman Jain +91 226 842 1486 aman.jain@bernsteinsg.com

Uma Menon +91 226 842 1490 uma.menon@bernsteinsg.com

India Power: Generation planning - China vs. India ... and Center

vs. State govt...

In this note, we discuss a) China’s 5 year plan released last week vs. India’s plans - if the country which makes 80-90% of global

solar panels and battery storage is tripling pumped storage, doubling nuclear and continues to build new coal plants (likely to add as

much new coal in 2026-2030 as India has done in total in history) - why is India shying away?; b) We also look at state-govt. plans for

sourcing power - most have aligned to renewable compliance obligations - how has it changed and how does it compare to central

plans.

A) CHINA’S 5 YEAR PLAN VS INDIA’S: INDIA GOT ENERGY TRANSITION RIGHT, BUT NOT ENERGY SECURITY

China released its15th five-year plan for building a new energy sytem last week. The plan focuses on energy security at its core, while

advancing green transition, boosting technology self-reliance and increasing market-based mechanisms in the sector. The plan targets

to drive coal and oil consumption to peak by 2030. The targets can be looked at from electrification and green energy perspective. While

most media articles were appreciative of the electrification push of China, they saw the green aspirations as being conservative and leaving

enough wiggle room to keep growing coal based generation these 5 years as well. In fact if China just reaches its solar+wind target of 50%

capacity by 2030, it would imply just 170 GW/yr of addition vs.