Lithium Shipping Data 4Q26: Australia | Metals & Mining

Research evidence excerpt

Lithium Shipping Data 4Q26: Australia | Metals & Mining

)UpgradedMIN attributableat 3Q from(50%)260-280kt(2) MIN(4)attributableUpgraded at(51%)3Q from(3)

following disruption from TC Narelle, with the first 4Q26 cargo departing Port Hedland on 4 190-210kt (5) Unrevised

April. We now estimate FY26 shipments of 318ktSC6e, with production of 311ktSC6e above Figure 2 - Pilgangoora, Wodgina and Mt

the top end of the upgraded guidance range. Marion shipped volumes FY26td

Mt Marion also remains strong. While Esperance shipping data has historically been less

reliable (Figure 4), recent quarters show improved correlation with reported volumes. We

estimate 4Q attributable shipments of 95kdmt (71ktSC6e), ahead of VA (72kdmt | 53ktSC6e)

and modestly above our prior estimate of 66.7ktSC6e. This implies FY26 shipments of .Source: Company reports, Pilbara Ports, Jefferies

246ktSC6e, with our production estimate of 235ktSC6e above the top end of the guidance

range. Figure 3 - 4Q26 Port Headland shipping

45 275

250 40 kwmt 225 35

200Make hay while the sun shines. MIN is incentivised to maximise output across its portfolio kwmt 30 175 4Q26

25 150

125 20to capture firm pricing and elevated ownership ahead of the agreed sale of a 30% stake in mass

100 15 shipping 75

10 Shipedd 50its interest in Wodgina and Mt Marion to POSCO (005490 KS, targeted 1H27 close). While 4Q

0 0performance is strong, we are cautious on extrapolation, particularly at Mt Marion, given rising 5 25 Cumulative

capitalised stripping into FY27 (see HERE). Bald Hill’s restart appears ahead of schedule, with Departure date DD/MM

Cum. MIN Cum. PLSoperations commencing in Jun-26 and on-spec concentrate achieved. We bring forward .

first production to 1Q27 (from 2Q27), while refining our ramp-up profile.