Strategy Inc (MSTR.O): Bitcoin Reset; Lowering TP to $136, Maintain Buy/HR

Research evidence excerpt

Strategy Inc (MSTR.O): Bitcoin Reset; Lowering TP to $136, Maintain Buy/HR

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01 Jul 2026 06:56:46 ET │ 17 pages

Strategy Inc (MSTR.O)

Bitcoin Reset; Lowering TP to $136, Maintain Buy/HR

CITI'S TAKE

We reset our estimates and TP to incorporate MSTR’s new capital plan

update as well as Citi’s revised 12-month BTC forecast (base case revised

27% lower to ~$81.8k – see: Forecast update: Flows: from slow to no-show). Buy / High Risk

Our revised $136 target price assumes ~40% upside contribution from a Price (30 Jun 26 16:00) US$86.93

higher Bitcoin price over the next 12 months and a ~16% upside contribution

from mNAV expansion from current levels. Our Adj. Bitcoin Yield estimates Target price US$136.00↓

are lowered meaningfully with FY’26 declining from 10.4% to 2.6% and from US$260.00

FY’27 declining from 10.5% to 3.9%. For now, we maintain our Adj. BTC Yield Expected share price return 56.4%multiple at 2.5x vs. FY’26 BTC yield equating to a 6.5% premium to NAV (or

1.065x mNAV). Risk towards our Adj. BTC Yield multiple assumption is likely Expected dividend yield 0.0%

contingent on whether the company’s preferreds can be restored to near par Expected total return 56.4%

levels following $1bn (~7% of notional) of expected repurchase activity. Market Cap US$30,464M

New Capital Plan Buys More Time for Stabilization — On Monday, Strategy

announced an updated capital plan after issuing $1.15bn worth of MSTR shares last

week. Proceeds from the issuance lifted MSTR’s USD Reserve from $1.4bn to

Price Performance$2.55bn week-over-week, enough to cover 17.4 months of preferred dividends. The

five-point plan also includes the authorization to increase the USD Reserve by (RIC: MSTR.O, BB: MSTR US)

$1.25bn as Preferred dividends increase (insuring at least 1-year of coverage),