Initiation of Coverage Capricorn Metals: Wait for the next leg of growth is (nearly) over; initiate with Buy rating

Research evidence excerpt

Initiation of Coverage Capricorn Metals: Wait for the next leg of growth is (nearly) over; initiate with Buy rating

Global Research

26 June 2026ab

Initiation of Coverage

EquitiesCapricorn Metals

Wait for the next leg of growth is (nearly) over; Australia

initiate with Buy rating Mining

12-month rating Buy

Prior : No Rating

12m price target A$17.00

About as simple as it gets

Prior :

Capricorn Metals (CMM.ASX) operate the expanding Karlawinda Gold Project and the

Mt Gibson Gold development project, both in Western Australia, with FY26 production Price (26 Jun 2026) A$12.12

guide of 120koz at $1,580/oz AISC at the midpoint, and a pathway to +300kozpa by RIC: CMM.AX BBG: CMM AU

FY29. Large, low cost, (predominantly) open pit projects with simple flowsheets in

Trading data and key metrics

Western Australia makes for a simple investment case, with the company having a good

track record of project delivery and solid in-house capability, as well as a steady and 52-wk range A$16.05-8.82

reliable operational delivery. CMM is well funded to complete the Mt Gibson build (net Market cap. A$5.52b/US$3.81b

cash $463m FY26 UBSe), with sector leading production growth (21% 5y CAGR), and Shares o/s 455m (ORD)

excess cash available for further reinvestment as well as growing capital return options Free float 100%

(we model a conservative ~1% dividend yield to FY30E). We initiate with a Buy rating Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,242

and a $17/sh 50:50 DCF:EV/EBITDA PT, representing ~40% upside to last close. Avg. daily value (m) A$28.4

Common s/h equity (06/26E) A$1.46b

Mt Gibson the key growth driver, and on the home stretch for permitting P/BV (06/26E) 3.8x

The 2023 Mt Gibson prefeasibility study envisioned a ~150kozpa production centre, fed Net debt to EBITDA (06/26E) NM