Australian Gold: Overweight, but Risks Remain

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Gold: Overweight, but Risks Remain

Global Research

30 June 2026ab

Australian Gold Equities

AustralasiaOverweight, but Risks Remain

Mining & Metals

Levi Spry

We see further downgrades on both costs & gold prices for FY27 EPS Analyst

We think rising cost pressures remain underappreciated by the market (link). While levi.spry@ubs.com

consensus assumes costs have peaked, we expect sector-wide AISC to rise ~A$110/oz +61-3-9242 6709

YoY in FY27 (UBSe A$2,760/oz vs. A$2,650/oz FY26), driving 5% EPS downside on avg. Al Harvey

in FY27 and further margin compression as we incorporate higher cost assumptions. Analyst

Gold is under near-term pressure from rising yields and rate hike expectations, but we al.harvey@ubs.com

retain a constructive outlook supported by anticipated Fed easing and ongoing +61-3-9242 6071

diversification demand, albeit with more uncertain & potentially delayed price recovery. Ben Wood

While we have trimmed near-term prices (incl. MTM), margins remain elevated, Analyst

supporting strong FCF and valuations. This backdrop reinforces a rotation toward quality ben.wood@ubs.com

& defensiveness, with higher-margin names such as NEM & CMM better positioned than +61-39-242 6709

growth peers facing rising capex, project/permitting delays; our preferences are NEM, Thomas Nightingale

GMD, CMM and CYL. Associate Analyst

thomas.nightingale@ubs.com

Downside risks to gold prices have increased +61-3-9242 6176

Gold has come under significant pressure as rising yields and rate hike expectations Lachlan Shaw

weigh on sentiment (LINK). While parallels to prior bear markets exist, we see prices, this Analyst

time, ultimately being supported by expected Fed easing and continued buying in both lachlan.shaw@ubs.com

+61-3-9242 6387

private and official sectors.