Energy Market Letter: Volume VIII

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Market Letter: Volume VIII

India | Energy EquityJulyResearch1, 2026

Exhibit 1 - Coverage universe stockEnergy Market Letter: Volume VIII

performance since start of ME conflict

Daily ships through Hormuz have reached mid-20 levels this week. Freight 5% 2% Stock performance since 27th Feb

rates are up 10% w/w and could take some time to normalize. GRMs -5%0% -4% -4%

-10%

-13%increased w/w and remain elevated. OMCs' marketing margins turns -10%-15% -7%

-20% -16% -18%

-25% -21%positive with the sharp fall in crude. Petchem spreads are up 134% since

-30% -25%

the start of the conflict, aiding Reliance's O2C profitability. BPCL and IOCL GAIL IGL MAHGL Reliance HPCL PLNG ONGC GUJGA BPCL IOCL

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferiesbenefit from lower crude and elevated GRMs. We expect OMCs to recoup .

losses before govt raises excise duty. Exhibit 2 - Number of vessels crossing Strait

of Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz shipments picking up: Commercial vessel movement has increased 16% 180 Hormuz commercial vessel crossings (24hr vessel count)

w/w in the past seven days (Ex 2) and has reached mid-20s against pre-conflict level of 120. 150

About 800mn bbl of crude inventories have been drawn down since the start of the conflict. 12090

Freight rates remain elevated: Freight rates increased 10% w/w and are up ~3x since the start 300

of the conflict (Ex 6). Freight rates could remain elevated in the near term, as supply chains 1-Jan-26 16-Jan-26 31-Jan-26 15-Feb-26 2-Mar-26 17-Mar-26 1-Apr-26 16-Apr-26 1-May-26 16-May-26 31-May-26 15-Jun-26 30-Jun-26are expected to take time to normalize. .

Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

Refining margins increase w/w, remain elevated: Singapore GRMs are US$ 16/bbl over the

Exhibit 3 - Average petchem spreads trend

past week compared to US$5/bbl at end-February.