Steam still left – even with the summer behind

Research evidence excerpt

Steam still left – even with the summer behind

India | Utilities EquityJulyResearch1, 2026

Steam still left – even with the summer Recent Research:

behind RE Awards to Pick Up with Rising Demand

Soaring temperatures saw power demand peak at a new high of 271 GW in Demand improving; execution ramp-up to

Apr-June 2026 vs 250 GW in earlier years. Data shows that power demand follow

does see peaks even in July-Sept at levels close to summer months also. Discoms Turn Profitable Led by Private

Key is that historical share price performance shows stocks moving higher Circles

post summer months as long as YoY demand sees healthy growth. We raise Battery bids accelerating; up 2.3x FY26

our FY27E demand estimate to 7% vs 6% earlier, post the 8%+ YoY growth YTD vs FY25

seen in Apr-June 2026.

2026: Demand Recovery to Drive Upside

Base effect favorable till end FY27E barring just December 2026: Power demand growth What Is Ailing Power Demand?

was negative or sub 4% throughout FY26, except in Dec. 2025 when it rose 6%. We analyzed

data and found that years with above average monsoons see weak power demand. We believe

that power demand should rise at 5-6% CAGR medium term assuming normalized weather

conditions. Excessive heat with El-Nino saw demand rise as high as 11% YoY in May and

in June till 28th of the month. Low base effect should see demand rising at normalized 6%

levels for the rest of the fiscal with potential of below average monsoons adding to upside.

Interestingly, we found that peak demand has hit headlines even in July-Sept in past years, as

peak demand has been close to Apr-June levels.

Key power stocks delivered 45-120% returns even post summer in FY24: Our recent

investor discussions have seen concerns raised on company outperformance and stock prices