MSC Industrial: Model Update: Signs of Recovery Continue to Build

Research evidence excerpt

MSC Industrial: Model Update: Signs of Recovery Continue to Build

USA | Distributors

MSC Industrial EquityJulyResearch1, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEModel Update: Signs of Recovery Continue to

RATING HOLDBuild

PRICE $118.95^

F3Q marked an inflection, with ADS accelerating to 7.8% as volumes returned to

positive territory. While growth remains largely price-driven, Core Customer and PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $130.00 ($90.00) | +9%

Nat'l Account trends improved as customer coverage normalized and industrial 52W HIGH-LOW $121.64 - $78.80

demand showed further signs of recovery. That said, shares have rallied to new FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 81.4% | 88.05

valuation highs and appear to discount significant additional recovery. MARKET CAP $6.7B

TICKER MSM

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

State of the End Markets. F3Q results exceeded expectations, with ADS growth of 7.8% driven noted.

by ~720bps of price and ~50bps of volume, marking a return to positive volume growth following

disruption from sales force optimization in F2Q. Core customers remained the standout (+8%),

while Nat'l Accounts accelerated to +7% as customer coverage normalized. Industrial demand also FY (Aug) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

improved, supported by five consecutive MBI readings above 50, positive IP readings across most 2026 2027 2026 2027

key verticals, improving automotive trends, and fewer planned summer shutdowns. REV +1% +2% +1% +1%

EPS +8% +9% +6% +4%

Sales Force Optimization in Focus. With the structural phase of sales force optimization complete,

the focus has shifted toward sales productivity through enhanced onboarding, pipeline mgmt, sales 2026 ($) Q1A Q2A Q3A Q4 FY

coaching, whitespace identification, and cross-selling initiatives.