CMC Markets: Incorporating New Guidance

Research evidence excerpt

CMC Markets: Incorporating New Guidance

CMC Markets plc (CMCX LN)

Equity Research

July 2, 2026

The Long View: CMC Markets

Investment Thesis Risk/Reward - 12 Month View

We assume trading revenue growth of 18% CAGR from FY26A-29E, with

Upside : Downside

fast early growth tapering to 3% at the end of the explicit forecast period. 1000 2.8 : 1

We assume stockbroking/B2B revenue growth of c. 19% CAGR from 900 900 (+97%)

FY26A-29E. 800

730 (+59%)

We have interest income flat at c. £40m, assuming rate changes and cash

balance growth offset each other.

These assumptions put our net operating income (NOI) forecasts at 16% 400

CAGR from FY26-FY29E. 300 300 (-34%)

Our PT implies CMC trades on c.10x FY28E EPS, roughly in line with peers. 200

2025 2026 +12 mo.

Base Case, Upside Scenario, Downside Scenario,

730p, +59% 900p, +97% 300p, -34%

CFD revenue growth of c. 19% CAGR from CFD revenue growth of c. 25% CAGR from CFD revenue growth of 0% CAGR from

FY26A-29E. FY26A-29E. FY26A-29E.

Stockbroking revenue growth of c. 18% CAGR PBT margin expansion to c. 55% by FY29E. Stockbroking revenue growth of 2% CAGR over

over the same period driven by the Australian and the same period. Our DCF produces a 900p PT, which would be

UK platforms. 14x our FY28E upside scenario forecasts. PBT margins decline to single digits in FY28E.

PBT margin builds to 48%. 10x earnings gives a PT of 300p.

Our DCF produces a 730p PT using a 13%

discount rate, 2% terminal growth rate and

adding back cash. That equates to 9.6x FY28E

EPS.

Sustainability Matters Catalysts

Top material issue: Customer care and protection; business ethics and governance. Late July trading update

Company targets/metrics: In FY22 CMCX hired a Group Head of Sustainability and conducted its Further B2B deal wins

first materiality review.