Keeping an Ion Battery Materials (16)

Research evidence excerpt

Keeping an Ion Battery Materials (16)

oduction 40% (%) imports 600500 35%

appears unlikely to be completed prior to the 1-Jan-27 flag-fall, with negligible sulphate exports 400 30% Africa

spodumene 300 25% Southernobserved year-to-date. 200

Chiina 100 20%

Battery (power and ESS) & WoodMac global energy storage outlook takeaways. Battery - 15%

prices remain flat (Figure 16 & Figure 17). On the demand side, moderating BEV and PHEV Australia Nigeria Canada Brazil

sales across the US and China have been somewhat offset by strong European growth. .Source: ChinaSouth AfricaCustoms,ZimbabweJefferies Southern Africa

We attended WoodMac’s 17-Jun Global Energy Storage Outlook briefing, which reinforced

our positive view on the ESS pipeline, with Chinese EV uptake remaining the key demand

driver. WoodMac forecasts ~170GW / 565GWh of new ESS installations by 2030, with Na-

ion batteries unlikely to drive material displacement before then. We continue to prefer

miners, which we believe remain best positioned to capture cyclical upside and geopolitical

dislocations. Among our coverage, PLS is the preferred exposure given its production flexibility

and clearly defined growth pipeline (see HERE for our analysis of PLS P2000 pre-capex spend).

C272 export restrictions. China has imposed export controls on five rare earth extractants,

including C272, the key Ni/Co extractant used in HPAL processing, with implementation

deferred to November 2026. We expect minimal impact on Indonesian HPAL production, given

sufficient ex-China supply.

Indonesian RKAB approvals. Uncertainty persists around final CY26 Ni ore RKAB allocations.

Per Mysteel, approvals had reached the ESDM’s initial 260–270Mt cap by end-Jun. As the mid-