Heineken 2Q26 Preview - On Track

Research evidence excerpt

Heineken 2Q26 Preview - On Track

EUROPE | Beverages

Heineken EquityJuneResearch30, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGE2Q26 Preview - On Track

We see the business on track to deliver in line with guidance with F26 RATING BUY

org EBIT +4.2% vs guidance 2-6% and we increase F26 EPS +1.4% to PRICE €73.82^

reflect positive FX given recent weakening of EUR. We see deep change PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €100.00 | +35%

underway at Heineken as the company sharpens execution, with new CEO 52W HIGH-LOW €80.24 - €63.90

from October a positive catalyst from change. As confidence in HEIA's FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 45.5% | 79.12

compounding potential increases, shares should re-rate. Cal 2027 PE 13.4x MARKET CAP €42.1B | $48.1B

vs staples 16.5x. TICKER HEIA NA

^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

What's changed? Ahead of 1H26 trading update on 5 August, we model 1H org sales/EBIT

+1.7%/+3.1%. We see good performance in Asia and Africa, early signs of recovery in Europe

despite tricky on-trade in S.Europe and headwinds continuing in Americas given tough US FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

market and some pressures in Mexico/Brazil after some market share gains in prior year. We 2026 2027 2026 2027

increase F26 EPS +1.4% to reflect favourable FX moves given recent weakening of EUR vs REV <1% +1% -1% -3%

most FX, with the exception of BRL. EPS +1% +2% NM -3%

CEO appointment - catalyst for stronger execution. On 23 June, the company announced 2026 (€) 1Half 2Half FY

appointment of Rafa Oliveira as CEO. It removes the overhang around management EPS -- -- 5.21

uncertainty and should drive stronger execution and performance culture. With Rafa building PREV 5.14

on the existing 2030 strategy, we see limited risk of a profit reset with the business capable of