MercadoLibre (MELI.O): Novo Nordisk Partners with MELI in MX: Repercussions for MELI/RADL

Research evidence excerpt

MercadoLibre (MELI.O): Novo Nordisk Partners with MELI in MX: Repercussions for MELI/RADL

MercadoLibre (MELI.O)

30 June 2026 Citi Research

MercadoLibre

Valuation

Our target price is $1,950/sh. To value MELI, we are using a 50/50 blended methodology of 1) two-stage discounted cash flow

to equity model and 2) sum-of-the-parts valuation. The two stage DCF yields $1,900 via a nominal perpetuity growth rate (g)

of 4.8%, and cost of equity of 13.4% (the result of a 4.5% risk-free rate in dollars, 2.5% weighted country risk, 5.5% equity risk

premium, and 1.2 beta). The SOTP model yields $2,000/sh based on 2x P/S multiple for e-comm in line with global, high growth

e-commerce peers (implying $1,100/sh), 9x P/E for payment based on 20% premium to STNE’s target multiple reflecting our

view on Pago’s superior growth profile (implying $300/sh) and 15x P/E for credit ops based on 20% premium to Nu’s current

multiple supported by the higher expected growth of MELI’s credit business (implying $600/sh).

Risks

We assign a High Risk rating to MELI as the investment cycle appears more intense and prolonged than previously anticipated,

limiting our ability to confidently forecast medium-term margins—despite maintaining conviction in the company’s capital

allocation and long-term growth profile.

The following factors could prevent MercadoLibre’s shares from achieving our target price:

1) Complex reporting. The company operates in 18 different countries and territories, with financial reporting in USD. Therefore,

its financials are subject to foreign currency movements, which constitutes both upside and downside risks. Important

currencies for the company include the BRL, MXN, and ARS which have demonstrated meaningful volatility in the context of

global currency markets.

2) Concentration.