USA | Automotive Aftermarket: June Monthly Tune-Up

Research evidence excerpt

USA | Automotive Aftermarket: June Monthly Tune-Up

USA | Automotive Aftermarket EquityJuneResearch30, 2026

Figure 1 - Reported VMT (B's) vs. JefferiesJune Monthly Tune-Up

VMT Prediction

Actual Prediction (historical) Prediction (future) Confidence Interval

310Our Tune-Up is a monthly look at key Aftermarket metrics. The latest available 290

250government driving data (April) was +0.7% y/y (280.5B mi), and TTM VMT +1.0% 230

190y/y. Our VMT model estimates that May vehicle utilization decreased -1.9% y/y. 170

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26Meanwhile, through May, the Aftermarket Index has underperformed the S&P . 150

500 YTD, posting a 8.1% decrease vs a 10.7% gain. Source: Jefferies, U.S. Dept. of Transportation

We use an additive regression-based BSTS

Update of our predictive VMT model for May. We update our predictive VMT model, projecting (Bayesian Structural Time Series) to break

May driving volumes well ahead of available government data (April most recent). We note that down seasonality, trend, feature impacts,

throughout its history, our prediction model shows a correlation of predicted miles driven vs and noise terms in our VMT time series.

reported miles driven of ~0.92, with an average prediction error of ~2.7%. Our model prediction The model is trained on VMT and collision

for May VMT is 288.3B miles (-1.9% y/y), with an upper limit of 301.0B miles and a lower limit of data since 2013; the prediction is based

275.2B miles. on isolated seasonality terms and features

derived from up-to-date collision data.