A Long Runway in an Underpenetrated Market; Initiate at Buy

Research evidence excerpt

A Long Runway in an Underpenetrated Market; Initiate at Buy

India | Brokers, Asset Mgrs & Exchanges

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. EquityJulyResearch1, 2026

INITIATING COVERAGEA Long Runway in an Underpenetrated

RATING BUYMarket; Initiate at Buy

PRICE INR2,841.00^

India’s commodity market lags equities, but penetration should rise, with

MCX—the leading non-agri exchange—well-placed to benefit. We forecast PRICE TARGET | % TO PT INR3,600 | +27%

MCX's revenue to grow at 20% CAGR despite the elevated base, noting new 52W HIGH-LOW INR3,479.80 - INR1,461.00

product scope and retail participation is at 1/5th of NSE. Along with 260bps FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 85.0% | 118.14

margin expansion, earnings CAGR is forecasted to be 22% to FY29e. PT of MARKET CAP INR724.5B | $7.7B

Rs3,600, based on 45x Jun'28 EPS, offers 27% upside. Optionalities could TICKER MCX IN ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

add further 15-20% upside. noted.

India's commodity trading market is much smaller: In both US and China, the commodity FY (Mar) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

futures market is larger than equity cash, unlike India (50% of cash turnover). Commodity 2027 2028 2027 2028

options penetration w.r.t. equity options (1%) also lags the US (CME Group: 17%). We expect REV NA NA NA NA

the Indian commodity futures and options ADTO to be 3x and 6x over the next decade.

EPS NA NA NA NA

Multiple growth drivers: We forecast 20% revenue CAGR over FY26-29e. This factors

commodity futures and options ADTO to grow at 5% and 28% CAGR from an elevated FY26 2027 (INR) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

base. This is driven by: (1) expansion into new products like battery metals and chemicals, and EPS -- -- -- -- 62.17

(2) increase in retail trading noting only 1/5th of NSE option traders trade MCX's options.