Bernstein‘s Transport & Airline Hot Shots: UP broadens SoCal surcharge; CHRW buys DeSpir; FAA‘s NY area flight limits; +

Research evidence excerpt

Bernstein‘s Transport & Airline Hot Shots: UP broadens SoCal surcharge; CHRW buys DeSpir; FAA‘s NY area flight limits; +

David Vernon +1 917 344 8333 david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com 29 June 2026

volume in under-served industry verticals.

Volume and yield can, at times, require a tradeoff…this market is not one of those times.

NA Transportation - Progressive mandating ELDs. Progressive insurance has long offered discounts to drivers using telematics, but has

started to require certain commercial trucking risk profiles to use a specific electronic logging device in order to get coverage. This is the

first time we have seen an insurer mandate usage of a specific logging device, and to the extent insurers seek to limit risks we would not be

surprised to see other insurers follow suit.

Another way to get at non-compliant truck capacity.

NA Transportation - US Revokes 20,000 Mexican Trucker Visas in Cabotage Crackdown. The U.S. revoked ~20,000 Mexican truck

driver work visas between April 2025–April 2026 under a Trump executive order targeting cabotage violations. Transportation Secretary

Sean Duffy cited 3,200 revocations since January for cabotage alone; ~30,000 foreign drivers total have been removed, with Mexicans

comprising two-thirds.

The purge of non-compliant capacity continues.

US Airlines - FAA Extends NYC Airport Slot Relief. The FAA extended flight limits at Newark, JFK, and LaGuardia airports due to

persistent ATC staffing shortages. Newark restrictions last through Summer 2027, while JFK and LaGuardia limits extend to late October

2028. The New York TRACON facility remains at only 57% of targeted staffing levels.

Capacity limits in high demand markets supportive of fares.

US Airlines - US airlines cut July 4 seats to prioritize profit.