Collins Foods Ltd. (CKF.AX): Krise in Germany?

Research evidence excerpt

Collins Foods Ltd. (CKF.AX): Krise in Germany?

Flash |

29 Jun 2026 19:25:16 ET │ 12 pages

Collins Foods Ltd. (CKF.AX)

Krise in Germany?

CITI’S TAKE

FY26 Underlying NPAT was $61.4 million was 2% above VA Consensus.

Buy Stat NPAT of $47.1 million was -19% below VA Consensus driven primarily

Short-Term View: Upside, expires 24-JUL-26 by class action related costs and restaurant impairments. A final dividend

Price (29 Jun 26 16:00) A$8.36 of 15cps was declared, slightly below the 16.3 in VA Consensus.

Target price A$10.30

Positives — 1) Balance sheet. Net leverage is 0.77 (FY25: 0.93) which means the group Expected share price return 23.2%

has capacity to invest in expansion, likely in Germany. However, the disappointing Expected dividend yield 3.7%

German FY27 trading update might mean investors would like to see improved Expected total return 26.9%

performance prior to additional acquisitions.

Market Cap A$988M

Negatives — 1) KFC Australia margin. EBITDA margin fell -19 bps on pcp driven by US$693M

increased lower margin delivery sales following reduction in delivery fees. 2) Germany

margin. Underlying FY26 restaurant margin fell -50bps reflecting poultry cost

pressure as a result of avian influenza. 3) Net cash flow. Was a $26 million outflow in

FY26 (FY25: $36 million inflow) driven by additional royalty payments (timing issue) Food & Beverage Team

and higher lease payments.

Sam TeegerAC

Outlook — Australian SSS for the first 8 weeks of FY27 was 4%, a strong result +61-2-8225-4319

considering weakening consumer sentiment and well ahead of the +2.5% in VA sam.teeger@citi.com

Consensus for 1H27. Unfortunately, for the same period, SSS in Germany and Eileen Li

Netherlands declined by -7.2% and -7.8% respectively with Collins attributing the