Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Risk Reward Update

Update

June 29, 2026 04:30 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MLondon Stock Exchange | Europe Marina Massuti

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Marina.Massuti@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3647

London Stock Exchange (LSEG.L, LSEG LN)

What’s Changed Top Pick

London Stock Exchange (LSEG.L) From To Diversified Financials | United Kingdom

Price Target 12,600p 12,100p

Stock Rating Overweight

Bull Case 16,215p 15,572p Industry View In-Line

Base Case 12,600p 12,100p Price target 12,100p

Bear Case 7,849p 7,538p Shr price, close (Jun 26, 2026) 8,062p

52-Week Range 10,990-6,684p

Updated Components

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e EPS

Investment Thesis EPS (p)** 745.2 477.0 544.8 613.6

Bull Base Bear Scenarios Prior EPS (p)** 677.6 481.4 544.0 613.5

Risks to Price Target / Rating Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Risk Reward for London Stock Exchange (LSEG.L) has been

updated

Reason for change

We update our model ahead of 2Q26 results. Our adjusted EPS forecast falls by c.1%

in 2026 and 2027 driven by small tweaks to our Markets forecasts and the impact of

higher assumed finance expense because of the ongoing buyback. We continue to

forecast group OCC revenue growth in line with management’s guidance (7.5% for

2026), supported by stronger volumes in the Capital Markets and Post Trade

divisions. Our EPS forecast for 2028 remains broadly unchanged as a lower assumed

share price largely offsets the impact of a higher finance expense. We lower our

price target to 12,100p (from 12,600p) reflecting the moderation to our EPS

estimates and a lower mark-to-market valuation for LSEG's stake in Tradeweb.