Indonesian Metals Sector: Recalibrate our preferences: nickel > gold > copper > diversified

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesian Metals Sector: Recalibrate our preferences: nickel > gold > copper > diversified

Global Research

26 June 2026ab

Indonesian Metals Sector Equities

IndonesiaRecalibrate our preferences: nickel > gold >

copper > diversified Mining & Metals

Igor Putra

Analyst

igor.putra@ubs.com

Moderating regulatory risk implies robust metals NPAT growth +62-21-2554 7033

We cut our 2026-28E metals NPAT 5-11%, assuming higher sulphur/laterite ore/energy Ivan Reynaldo Sutheja

costs and a higher cost burden sharing intensity in the nickel value chain. We raise our Analyst

risk-free rate and equity risk premium to reflect rising local policy rates and volatile ivan-reynaldo.sutheja@ubs.com

mining policies, respectively, although the latter has eased recently. We therefore cut our +62-21-2554 7037

SOTP PTs for metals companies 21% on average. We remain positive on Indonesian Daniel Major

metals based on robust 123%/50% YoY NPAT in 2026/27E, due to stronger sales Analyst

volume growth from new project commissioning and output ramps. The solid top-line daniel.major@ubs.com

growth outlook could mitigate the downside of lower metal prices. We now prefer +44-20-7568 3472

nickel (over gold) on a tighter mining quota (RKAB) and gold equities outperformance Timothy Handerson

YTD. Easing Middle East (ME) risk bodes well for metal equities due to lower energy Analyst

costs, while metal prices appear to have priced in the lower ME risk to some extent. timothy.handerson@ubs.com

+62-21-2554 5000

Nickel: moderating policy risk and tight RKAB to drive fundamentals Dim Ariyasinghe

We think the mining regulator's recent statement that it would ensure a stable policy Analyst

environment has reduced regulatory risk. We refocus on nickel fundamentals. 1) Our dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com