Transport Takes: Weekly: Private Company Feedback -- LTL Tightening & TL Market; Investor Debates FDX & Rails

Research evidence excerpt

Transport Takes: Weekly: Private Company Feedback -- LTL Tightening & TL Market; Investor Debates FDX & Rails

Global Research

27 June 2026ab

Transport Takes Equities

North AmericaWeekly: Private Company Feedback --

LTL Tightening & TL Market; Investor Debates Transportation Services

FDX & Rails Thomas WadewitzAnalyst

thomas.wadewitz@ubs.com

+1-212-713 6116

LTL is tightening & rates are moving up Michael Triano

Analyst

Feedback from a mix of private company LTL and brokerage companies points to tighter michael.triano@ubs.com

capacity in the LTL market and one / two day embargoes moving to recent cases of 1 - 2 +1-212-713 3822

weeks. While we think of LTL driving jobs as higher quality / easier to hire jobs (vs

Michael DiMattia

irregular route truckload), feedback indicates the LTL driver market is feeling the effects

of regulatory pressure on truckload drivers and capacity. Our discussions also indicate michael.dimattia@ubs.com

brokers are starting to see rate increases come in from asset LTL names on blanket +1-617-748 5628

pricing. Tighter capacity and rising rates are clearly a positive for the LTL companies.

Where can they go? Difficult for shippers to push back on TL rates

Our conversations with brokers and shippers point to the pressure shippers are facing

from the large rise in spot rates and significant moves up in contract rates in 2026. We

believe it is difficult for shippers to find levers to push back on further increases in

truckload rates because brokers are unlikely to accept rate increases that will not

adequately cover the rise in the cost of capacity, and a rapidly tightening driver market

and already high tender rejection rates make it unlikely that asset TL names will accept

additional freight.