US Restaurants European Investor Meeting Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

US Restaurants European Investor Meeting Takeaways

to support stronger baseline US sss trends. Broader US

and global macro impacts were points of discussion, including whether MCD could

improve results despite the difficult consumer backdrop. Potential risk to multiyear

global unit development targets (~50K by '27) was a recurring topic, with investors also

focused on the upcoming investor day and multiyear growth drivers.

Chipotle (CMG, Buy, $45 PT)

Investors generally focused on whether the risk / reward for CMG is attractive currently,

even if sentiment was less positive than in years past. Key discussion points were on sales

pressures since '25, with many trying to assess macro / cyclical headwinds relative to

potential structural / brand specific challenges. Investors are struggling to get conviction

in the recovery path without confidence in being able to identify sources of pressure.

While investors expect 2H trends to begin improving with greater pricing in the model

and from additional sales initiatives (ie LTOs, rewards program, operations benefits, new

CMO) in place or coming, still largely sluggish trends remain a concern for many

investors. Nailing down valuation was a point of focus, although largely tied to the

longer-term growth outlook which was also a debate, even as the risk / reward for shares

appears attractive to most at current levels. Specific to international development

prospects, investors were mixed on the growth potential in Europe, with many believing

demand for the concept is strong (positive on taste and value) and the opportunity

remains significant, while others were less certain in part given existing competition.

Starbucks (SBUX, Neutral, $105 PT)

Investor sentiment was split on Starbucks, similar to our meetings in Europe last year,