2Q26 Earnings Preview: Leaning Large

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Earnings Preview: Leaning Large

IdeaM10.0-10.5% medium-term CET1 target, driving upward revisions to Street

buyback estimates over time.

• Goldman Sachs (GS, EW): While the stock has outperformed QTD, we think

both revenue strength and positive forward commentary can boost the stock

at earnings as investors gain further confidence in a broadening out of capital

markets activity. We are 9% above Consensus for Global Banking and

Markets for the quarter. We are also 9% above consensus for EPS for 2027,

and we expect the Street will move higher as capital markets activity

broadens out. While we do not expect Goldman to change its YTD comp

ratio in 2Q, any improvement this quarter would be an incremental positive.

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM, EW): Market construed JPM's $1B raise of the 2026

expense guide last month negatively, but missed that higher expenses were

explicitly attributable to better-than-expected fees and trading revenue, i.e.,

these are good expenses. With the perceived bad news out of the way, we

expect good news at earnings to include a beat-and-raise on NII and strength

in capital markets driving returns higher. Expect the $95B ex-Markets NII

guide to move higher to at least $96B (vs. Cons. $95B), as strong deposit/

loan trends continue in a higher for longer rate environment. CEO succession

and Jamie Dimon's comments on his expected tenure at the helm is likely to

be a focus on the call.

• PNC Financial (PNC, EW): We see upside to PNC’s FY26 revenue guide and

expect management to raise the guide to 12%+ y/y from ~11%, driven by

stronger NII and fees, while we are also above its guide for ~400bps of

positive operating leverage. At our conference, management pointed to the

high end of the 2Q guide, supported by stronger loan growth and robust