North America Insurance - Brokers: Our preferred brokerage stocks ST & LT

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North America Insurance - Brokers: Our preferred brokerage stocks ST & LT

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26 Jun 2026 14:21:20 ET │ 15 pages

North America Insurance - Brokers

Our preferred brokerage stocks ST & LT

CITI'S TAKE

Insurance

We have Buy ratings on all the insurance broker stocks we cover following

several upgrades we made in May to reflect, in our view, a systemic return North America

opportunity in the sector (see note). However, we have preferences within AC Matthew Heimermann

the group over the ST and LT. We want to clarify those preferences to help

investors as they think through the potential opportunity set (into 2Q and +1-404-443-4732

beyond). matthew.heimermann@citi.com

Patrick Marshall

Preferred names for longer horizon clients — Our highest conviction ideas for +1-212-816-2651

investors with duration are AON, AJG, and Ryan. Why? A combination of risk-reward patrick.c.marshall@citi.com

trade-off, conviction in execution, and confidence in estimates from here. That is

not to say the other brokers do not have LT upside, but these are the names that we

believe stand out both in terms of quantum of upside and lower risks to fundamental

outlooks (outside of macro deterioration).

Opportunities for shorter horizons — If we are using earnings prospects,

considering both upside and downside risks, we are positive on both AON and AJG

where we see reasonable comps and room for positive revisions. We are a bit

concerned that international growth risks have yet to dissipate even if there is

growing calm in the Middle East. As a result, we are cautious on WTW given its

historical beta to non-US growth prospects.

Short-covering as a risk and opportunity — We would note that one consequence

of the sentiment improving for the group (and the realization of the systemic return