Canada Mining Weekly: Searching for a Bottom

Research evidence excerpt

Canada Mining Weekly: Searching for a Bottom

Canada | Metals & Mining EquityJuneResearch26, 2026

A late-week rebound in gold, with prices solidly back above $4,000/oz. We are

getting questions of what price constitutes a "bottom" - hard to say, but there

does appear to be support at $4,000/oz. Gold was at these levels at the end of

2025. Gold equities are inexpensive, but investors we speak to are waiting for

signs of a bottom on the commodity. Central banks continue to buy gold, with

China importing 163t in May, the strongest level in two years.

Commodity commentary. The People's Bank of China accelerated its gold buying in May,

purchasing 10t, the highest level since December 2024, according to the World Gold Council.

Looking at total gold imports, China imported 163t in May, the largest monthly total since March

2024. Gold imported by China YTD is 695t, +76% y/y. Although this is positive news for gold

demand, we think there needs to be more clarity on US rates before investment demand globally

can materially rebound. May core PCE inflation, the US Fed's preferred measure, was 3.4%, the

highest level since October 2023. The all-items PCE inflation was 4.1%. For now, investors appear

to be pricing in one scenario: the Fed raising rates this year. As we've written before, we believe it's

possible the Fed takes a "look through" approach on the oil price shock, especially now that WTI is

below $70/bbl again. We find it difficult to see rates moving higher this year because of the political

and fiscal implications. US midterm elections are in November, and the current national debt is $39

trillion, resulting in net interest payments that are ~15% of total federal outlays. For the first time,

annual net interest payments exceed annual spending on defense.

Company updates.