April Building Permit Data: Yet Another Mixed Month Across End Markets

Research evidence excerpt

April Building Permit Data: Yet Another Mixed Month Across End Markets

USA | Industrials EquityJuneResearch26, 2026

April Building Permit Data: Yet Another Mixed

Month Across End Markets

Our proprietary construction permit data for April shows mixed results, with

resi new construction down ~1% y/y, resi and cml R&R down 5% and 1%

respectively; and cml new construction down 5.6% y/y. On the plus side;

Resi HVAC permits were up 1.7% with commercial up 2.3% y/y. Pool permits

increased 2.2% in April which is encouraging following an extended period of

choppy results.

What's Most Interesting? End markets remained mixed y/y in April. Notably Resi new construction

swung back into a y/y decrease after a two-month expansion. Resi R&R continued its H/MSD

decline, with R&R continuing to underperform new. Across the end markets, resi generators and

roofing (resi + cml) faced the largest y/y declines again this month, while resi and cml HVAC permits

were up 1.7% and 2.3% y/y, consistent with AHRI resi shipments which were up LSD. Read our

recent resi HVAC update HERE.

What The Data is Telling Us

Residential New Construction Permits were down 0.8% in Apr vs Mar's restated +1%, while•

housing starts were down 0.6% in Apr (+13% in Mar) (Ex. 1).

Residential Existing Structures (Repair/Remodel). April TTM Data trending worse at -4.1%•

vs. -3.5% in Mar and remains lower than the most recent LIRA index (Ex. 2) of +2%, as monthly

data was -MSD.

Commercial New Construction Permits were down 5.6% y/y vs. Mar's restated read of -13%,•

as overall spending trended up 0.8% in Apr (Ex. 4).

All HVAC Permits. Our unadjusted total HVAC permits index shows a ~0.7 correlation with•

HARDI distributor sales. In Apr, permits were up 1.7%, well below shipments (+5.1% y/y) and