Weekly Refining & Marketing Margin

Research evidence excerpt

Weekly Refining & Marketing Margin

Australia | Refining & Marketing EquityJuneResearch26, 2026

Figure 5 - ALD & VEA PE ratioWeekly Refining & Marketing Margin

20x

VEA ALD

Refining margins improved slightly this week and remain well above 18x16x

14x

12xhistorical levels. We expect crude and product supply normalisation from

10x

the Strait of Hormuz to take some time and refining margins to remain 8x6x

above pre-conflict levels. Iran oil sanctions waiver should support regional May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26

.margins as China's teapot refineries lose access to discounted sanctioned Source: Factset. NB: 12mth fwd

crude imports. Gasoline retail margin weakness partly offset by strength in

diesel in 2Q to date. Figure 6 - Aus Refining SWAM - US$/bbl by qtr

33.3 34.5

24.6 23.6 23.8 21.7 23.4 20.9 18.8 19.9A weekly summary of refining & marketing margins across Australia & NZ - We monitor 16.8 16.7 16.4 12.6 13.6 14.2 14.2

a Singapore Weighted Average Margin (SWAM), which we construct based on a typical

Australian refiner product slate, as well as a published Minas211 benchmark. Both metrics

have been highly correlated with ALD and VEA refining margins over time (refer to Appendix 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26*

for correlation). We also show individual product cracks and crude premia, as well as product .

Source: Jefferies analysis. NB: Based on a fixed pre-COVID

inventory. In addition, we monitor weekly Australian retail margin data from AIP, and NZ product slate. 2Q26 is period to date

importer margins from Government data.

Refining margins averaged US$30/bbl this week - Minas211 averaged US$29.54/bbl this