Global FX Strategy: G10 FX Outlook - Q3 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Global FX Strategy: G10 FX Outlook - Q3 2026

Global Research

25 June 2026ab

Global FX Strategy FX

GlobalG10 FX Outlook - Q3 2026

Shahab Jalinoos

Strategist

We further extend our bullish USD outlook. We now project EURUSD at 1.1200 and USDJPY at 165.0 by end-Q3 and end-2026. We shahab.jalinoos@ubs.com

+1-212-882-5532

remain bullish GBP and lower our outlook for AUD and CHF.

The recent re-pricing higher at the front end of the US yield curve has led to the DXY breaking to new 2026 highs and primed to test the 102.00 Alvise Marino

Strategistlevel that last traded in May 2025. And while the market is now long USD in terms of positioning, levels are still far from 2024 extremes. In this

alvise.marino@ubs.com

context, we are content to revise our long-held EURUSD 1.1400 end-2026 target to 1.1200. We see scope for a move as low as 1.1100 during Q3. +41-44-237 8440

The main barriers to more aggressive USD strength are the degree of US rates re-pricing already seen, positioning and the fact that ex-US BoP

positions are in relatively healthy shape. Benjamin Jarrett

benjamin.jarrett@ubs.com

We have consistently favoured long USDJPY positions and we see no reason to change this despite intervention risk. Once 2024 highs are clearly +44-20-7567 5430

breached, we would expect USDJPY to move higher towards 165.00, raising our near-term target from 162.50 currently and our end-2026 target

Meena Bassily

from 160.00. We continue to advocate fading bouts of intervention as long as underlying fundamentals are unchanged. Strategist

meena.bassily@ubs.com

GBP continues to show resilience in the face of political developments at home given the ongoing commitment to the fiscal rules and a benign +44-20-7567 1145

fundamental flow backdrop.