Forecasting approach applied to Oerlikon

Research evidence excerpt

Forecasting approach applied to Oerlikon

Global Research

24 June 2026ab

Oerlikon Equities

SwitzerlandApplying a machine learning approach for

evaluating short-term growth potential Advanced Industrial Equipment

12-month rating Neutral

12m price target CHF3.80Industry indicators suggest demand growth in the short-term

Prior : CHF3.55

Together with UBS Empirical Scientific Approaches (ESA) team, we co-developed an

empirical framework to assess Oerlikon's short-term organic growth prospects by Price (22 Jun 2026) CHF3.92

linking its organic sales performance to a broad set of macroeconomic and industry- RIC: OERL.S BBG: OERL SW

specific indicators. For more details on the framework, please see our accompanying

white paper. Hence, based on the latest available data, the model forecasts Trading data and key metrics

approximately c8% organic sales growth for Oerlikon in 2Q26E, thus suggesting a 52-wk range CHF4.44-2.67

supportive demand environment. We combine these inputs with our bottom-up Market cap. CHF1.33b/US$1.64b

analysis, while also reflecting latest raw material price changes. As a result, we also Shares o/s 340m (REG)

change our FY26/27/28E estimates by 25%/2%/3% for the company. This drives our Free float 53%

DCF-derived PT to CHF 3.80 (previously CHF3.55). We rate Oerlikon Neutral. Avg. daily volume ('000) 576

Avg. daily value (m) CHF2

Discounting a more supported top line environment Common s/h equity (12/26E) CHF0.89b

Our revised forecasts point to a continued somewhat well supported demand backdrop P/BV (12/26E) 1.5x

across Oerlikon’s key end markets. While manufacturing indicators remain mixed, our Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.1x

quantitative model forecasts approximately 8% organic sales growth for 2Q26E,

EPS (UBS, diluted) (CHF)