GLP-1 Market: Key takeaways from GLP-1 call with Michael Yee

Research evidence excerpt

GLP-1 Market: Key takeaways from GLP-1 call with Michael Yee

Global Research

24 June 2026ab

GLP-1 Market Equities

Europe including UKKey takeaways from GLP-1 call with Michael Yee

Healthcare

Tanya Hansalik

GLP-1 market remains structurally strong, with obesity the key driver Analyst

Following our CDMO Fieldtrip, we hosted our US Biotech analyst Michael Yee for a call tanya.hansalik@ubs.com

on the GLP-1 market outlook (see slides). Michael highlighted a ~$130–135bn global +41-44-239-2053

market by 2030 with obesity driving the majority of growth, as penetration of the Michael Yee

eligible obese population is relatively low. UBS forecasts ~40m patients on GLP-1s by Analyst

2030 (from ~25m in 2026) with ~half of patients coming from the US alone, further michael.yee@ubs.com

supporting multi-year volume expansion. While discontinuation rates are still high +1-305-536 9101

(~50% patients off GLP after 1 year), pricing declines and and next-generation therapies Patrick Rafaisz, CFA, FRM

should support better persistence over time. Orals are emerging and could account for Analyst

~20% of the market long-term, but are likely complementary growth rather than patrick.rafaisz@ubs.com

disruptive given lower efficacy vs. injectables. +41-44-239 90 66

Eli Lilly leading on product and pipeline, generics swing factor post-2030

The market remains a duopoly, but Lilly is increasingly emerging as the clear leader. UBS

expects Lilly to reach ~65% market share vs. ~15% for Novo, supported by superior

efficacy (tirzepatide) and a strong pipeline of next-gen assets (e.g., amylins, triple-

agonists with 30% weight loss). Post 2030, as generics begin to enter the US, Novo’s

behaviour will be a key swing factor for industry pricing—potentially acting as a more