Independent Refiners: Gasoline Cracks Rise to Close the Gap to Diesel Cracks

Research evidence excerpt

Independent Refiners: Gasoline Cracks Rise to Close the Gap to Diesel Cracks

Global Research

24 June 2026ab

Independent Refiners Equities

North AmericaGasoline Cracks Rise to Close the Gap to Diesel

Cracks Energy

Manav Gupta

Analyst

manav.gupta@ubs.com

Gasoline demand holding up while refiners remain in max diesel model +1-212-713 4399

We first highlighted this issue in our note on May 11, 2026. Heading into the summer, Saumya Jain

U.S. gasoline inventories are ~6.3% below the five-year average and ~6.9% below last Associate Analyst

year, with refiners operating in maximum jet fuel and diesel yield mode. Limited saumya.jain@ubs.com

availability of vacuum gasoil (VGO) is constraining full utilization of both FCC and +1-212-882 0089

hydrocracking units. As refiners prioritize hydrocracking to maximize distillate output, Richard DeDios

we see rising risk of a gasoline supply shortfall. We highlight the strong seasonality in Associate Analyst

gasoline demand, with data from 2023–2025 indicating that demand in the second and richard.dedios@ubs.com

third quarters is ~400–500 mb/d higher than in the first quarter. As demand ramps into +1-212-713 8018

the summer driving season, we see increasing risk of supply tightness. With refiners Sumantra Banerjee

prioritizing jet fuel and diesel production, we believe it may be challenging to source the Associate Analyst

additional ~500 mb/d of gasoline required to meet seasonal demand, raising the sumantra.banerjee@ubs.com

likelihood of localized shortfalls. +1-212-713 5104

Gasoline cracks closing the gap to diesel

In last 2 -4 weeks we have seen gasoline cracks move up and close the gap to diesel

cracks.

First week, after the conflict started, Gulf Coast diesel cracks premium to gasoline

cracks had widened to $41.50/bbl.