European Transport and Infrastructure: Transport & Infrastructure Weekly - Key investor questions and newsflow

Research evidence excerpt

European Transport and Infrastructure: Transport & Infrastructure Weekly - Key investor questions and newsflow

France (Link). With current forecasts of 3GW annual incremental capacity additions in

Europe o/w 1GW in France, we estimate the EU market for electrical/mechanical

solutions providers could be in a range of €15-21bn per year. We believe Eiffage stands

out with a potential increase of 50% in Energy Systems EBIT and 17% market cap

upside driven by the French AI acceleration theme. From our discussions with investors,

we found more scepticism rather than optimism around this theme. While a few

investors acknowledged optionality around this theme, more had doubts around the

execution timeline of the AI datacentre projects, the ability of Vinci/Eiffage to be selected

and to aggressively pursue this segment, and around the ability to replicate EBIT margins

of major players in the US ~12-13%. We expect over the next quarters announcements

around awarding the mechanical/electrical work scope. Eiffage management comments

around preparing the organisation to work on 2 hyperscaler projects in parallel or its

acquisition of Hand and Werk suggest to us a strong focus on developing its current

business. In the context of Eiffage 12m fwd P/E of 10.8x and many investors avoiding

French political risk, we believe that, if our thesis proves right and Eiffage is awarded

several large MEP contracts on French data centres, we would expect to see a

meaningful re-rating of the name.

DSV: Restarting the share buy back

Several investors asked about the probability for DSV to restart the share buy back at Q2

results and the Road CEO change. With regards to the SBB, we see a 60-70% probability

to restart. From a working capital perspective we see one headwind and two tailwinds to