EM & APAC Equity Strategy: A fresh look post Iran conflict

Research evidence excerpt

EM & APAC Equity Strategy: A fresh look post Iran conflict

Global Research

24 June 2026ab

EM & APAC Equity Strategy Equity Strategy

GlobalA fresh look post Iran conflict

Sunil Tirumalai

Strategist

EM no longer what you thought it was sunil.tirumalai@ubs.com

+91-22-6155 6080

While the Iran conflict nears a close and oil pressures ease, the EM/APAC universe has

been undergoing significant shifts. 1) Concentration has reached levels never seen Karen Hizon

Strategisteven in the US - with top 5 stocks now accounting for over 34% of the EM index by

karen.hizon@ubs.com

weight (Figure 6), 2) Historically EM/APAC offered true diversification away from US - +852-2971 6741

having lower correlation/beta to the US than Europe. But with the large stocks in EM and

Asia now essentially an extension of the US AI theme, correlations have tightened for the Kruti Shah, CFA

past year (surpassing that of Europe, Figure 7WhoofersbeterdiversificationtoUSequities:EMorotherDMs?Formuchofhistory,MSCIEMcorelationswithUSwaslowerthanthatofDM(ex-US).ThatmeansglobalportfoliossawEMsasdiversifiersawayfromUS.), 3) Taiwan and Korea have replaced China

kruti.shah@ubs.com

and India as top 2 markets (c50% weight in EM index). Historical study shows the 'Top +91-22-6155 6031

2' tag can be sticky - with an average longevity of c15 months (Figure 8RoundrobinofEMleadershipThetop2spotsinMSCIEMbyweighthasbencloselyrotatedamongstahandfulofmarketsoverthelast20years.RecentlyTaiwanandKoreahaetopledChinaandIndiatogetto#1and#2spots,respectively). Overall, the Iran

conflict itself had left little impact on EM markets and earnings (with 'ceasefire' talk Anna Zadornova

Economist

keeping markets hopeful since early April). This report takes a fresh look at our market

anna.zadornova@ubs.com

preferences post the conflict.