LatAm Transport and Capital Goods: Daily Take-Off: ASUR, RENT, MOVI, RAPT, MOTV, ECOR

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Transport and Capital Goods: Daily Take-Off: ASUR, RENT, MOVI, RAPT, MOTV, ECOR

markets, which now represent >40–45% and >30% of revenues,

respectively. Management also highlighted optionality in the U.S. platform, though

the ramp-up remains a near-term headwind. The near-term outlook remains soft

but stabilizing, with heavy-vehicle demand constrained mainly by credit availability

and interest rates. Railcars, exports, Move Brasil and Fenatran may provide some

support.

ECOR, MOTV: Regulatory WACC methodology to be discussed

According to Agencia Infra's broadcast, ANTT, Brazil’s National Land Transportation

Agency, will open a public consultation on Friday, June 26, to review its WACC

calculation methodology, a key parameter used to determine the minimum

expected return for investors in infrastructure concessions. Prepared by Sucon, the

proposal seeks to align the model more closely with actual market conditions after

technical reviews identified areas for improvement in the methodology introduced

in 2022. Key changes include revising concession risk bands from standard-deviation

multiples to simulated-distribution quantiles, using the annual median of closing

share prices instead of a single-day price to measure equity capital, standardizing

historical data series from 2011 for most variables, and replacing the simple

average of bank lending rates with a weighted sectoral cost of debt that includes

infrastructure debentures. Preliminary simulations suggest slightly higher returns

for lower-risk projects and lower returns for higher-risk categories, narrowing

spreads across risk bands. ANTT emphasized that the proposal does not yet define

new spreads and is aimed primarily at methodological improvement rather than

changing project attractiveness.