First Read Trip.com 1Q26 earnings quick take: revenue/OP beat; soft 2Q topline guide amid headwinds

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Trip.com 1Q26 earnings quick take: revenue/OP beat; soft 2Q topline guide amid headwinds

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 73.5%

Forecast dividend yield 0.8%

Forecast stock return 74.3%

Market return assumption 11.0%

Forecast excess return 63.3%

Company Description

Trip.com Group, formerly known as Ctrip.com International, is a leading travel service

provider of hotel reservations, transportation tickets and packaged tours to business and

leisure travellers in China and overseas. Following its investment in eLong and the acquisition

of Qunar in 2015, the company strengthened its leading position in China's online travel

market. It currently operates multiple brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner and

Qunar. Trip.com targets generating 15-20% of total revenue from pure international

businesses in the next three to five years.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our price target is DCF based.

Since travel demand is highly correlated to the macro economy and political stability, a

potential slowdown in China's economic growth or political conflicts could negatively impact

the overall travel market. Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, and contagious diseases,

such as COVID-19, could reduce travel demand and impact Trip.com's growth. Increasing

direct sales from airlines and hotels, as well as competition among OTAs could reduce

commission rates for Trip.com or lead to increasing marketing spend. On the positive side,

high-speed rail could stimulate incremental domestic travel demand, and a faster-than-

expected ramp-up of its international businesses could bring upside to Trip.com's revenue

growth and margins.

First Read: Trip.com 25 June 2026 ab 2