European Economic Comment: Germany: ifo index up, but still below March levels

Research evidence excerpt

European Economic Comment: Germany: ifo index up, but still below March levels

Global Research

24 June 2026ab

European Economic Comment Economics

GlobalGermany: ifo index up, but still below March

levels Felix Huefner

Economist

felix.huefner@ubs.com

+49-69-1369 8280

ifo index up in June - but still below March level Reinhard Cluse

The ifo index rose in June to 85.6 (+0.6), in line with consensus, driven by both the Economist

expectations component (+0.2 to 84.1; consensus 85.1) and especially the current reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 6722

conditions component (+0.9 to 87; consensus 86.3). In line with previous patterns, we

think that about half of survey responses were received after the signing of the MoU Franziska Fischer

between the US and Iran on 17 June. The headline index now has partly reversed its Economist

April/May declines, but still stands 0.6 points below its March level. As regards the franziska.fischer@ubs.com

+41-44-239 2054

impact of the Middle-East conflict: the ifo index is now 2.9 points below its pre-conflict

level in February, which compares to -9.9 from February to June 2022, following the Anna Titareva

start of the war in Ukraine. Hence, companies still seem to interpret the current shock as Economist

less severe than the 2022/23 energy shock (even though the level of the index is much anna.titareva@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 5083

lower today). Overall, the ifo press release notes: "German companies are hoping for

geopolitical tensions to ease." Looking beyond the short-term fluctuations, however,

the index level remains close to where it was two years ago, when Germany was in

recession.

Sentiment up across sectors

Sentiment improved across sectors with the most noticeable increase in services.