US Daily Data Recap: Bessent sees inflation coming back to target

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap: Bessent sees inflation coming back to target

orated annual revisions to the international

accounts data today, which we discuss in more detail below. While the balance on goods

and services generally revised wider through 2025, the Q1 estimate is slightly narrower

than the one we think was incorporated into Q1 GDP by the BEA. This is a key reason we

expect the third estimate of GDP revises up to 2.3% (saar) tomorrow. Note the revisions

before Q1 will not be incorporated into GDP until September.

The President noted in a social media post (link here) that today's signing of the 21st

Century Road to Housing Act was cancelled, but Speaker Johnson stated that he

expected the President to sign the bill within ten days (link here).

Secretary Bessent predicts inflation will come down

Secretary Bessent delivered prepared remarks last night to the Economic Club of New Bessent echoed Chair Warsh's

York (link here) and appeared on CNBC this morning (full interview here). In Q&A last argument that AI-driven productivity

night (link here), Bessent stated that he expects consumer price increases will slow, growth could be disinflationary.

noting, "Now that we are, I believe, on the other side of this conflict, gas prices will

come back down, inflation will come back to target," he said.

On CNBC this morning, Bessent declined to comment on expectations for rate cuts this

year, but when asked on the topic, he leant into arguments referenced by Chair Warsh

that AI-induced productivity growth could lead to disinflation, potentially implying that

the Fed should wait and see. "I think … that we do need to have an open mind on the

price, or the inflation impact of the Iran conflict and let's see what inflation looks like on

the other side of this.