APAC Economic Perspectives: Vietnam: tempering the shock, unlocking growth

Research evidence excerpt

APAC Economic Perspectives: Vietnam: tempering the shock, unlocking growth

tered and implemented

capital. Monthly investment figures reached new historical highs during 1H26. On the

ground, we continue to observe solid progress in several flagship projects, particularly in

tech-related sectors. The Politburo recently issued Resolution 10 on the development of

the foreign-invested economy. This marks a strategic shift toward attracting high-quality

FDI that brings advanced technology, strengthens domestic linkages, and supports

green and digital transformation. In our view, the resolution should help channel limited

resources into projects that enhance domestic value-added and spillovers, strengthening

supply chains and long-term growth potential. While a more selective approach may

moderate monthly FDI flows, large tech projects are likely to receive greater support and

resources. Overall, we expect a positive growth impact in both the near and long term.

Government investment to take the lead ahead

Public investment growth has slowed significantly in recent months. For Jan–May 2026,

state investment growth decelerated to 10%, down from 21% in the same period of

2025 and 29% for full-year 2025. A high base effect contributed to this slowdown.

Elevated energy prices have also increased infrastructure construction costs, raising the

risk of budget overruns and discouraging disbursement. Public investment growth

slowed notably after Feb, following the oil shock. Importantly, the government’s

planned investment target implies growth of more than 30% compared with actual

investment last year. To meet the full-year target, public investment growth could

accelerate to above 40% in the coming months. On 13 Jun, Prime Minister Le Minh