US Daily Data Recap: GDP revised up, spending soft, PCE prices in line

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US Daily Data Recap: GDP revised up, spending soft, PCE prices in line

Global Research

25 June 2026ab

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasGDP revised up, spending soft, PCE prices in line

Abigail Watt

Economist

Real GDP growth in Q1 revised up 0.5 pp to 2.1% (saar) in the third estimate, well above abigail.watt@ubs.com

+1-212-882 6929

consensus (1.6%) but closer to our expectation (2.3%). The contribution matters — a

chunky revision upward to the net exports contribution from weaker imports drove the Jonathan Pingle

improvement, while consumption was revised weaker. Real spending in May rose 0.3% Economist

(3.2% annualized), while the April pace was revised down -0.1 pp to 0.0%, suggesting jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

an okay pace of spending across the two months (1.6%) annualized. But this isn't all

that boomy considering bumper tax refunds putting extra money in people's pockets. Alan Detmeister

Higher prices may be taking a toll. May durable goods orders appeared weak at a Economist

headline level, but orders excluding lumpy transportation and aircraft orders and alan.detmeister@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1222

defense were up 1.6% in May, more than offsetting the -0.7% dip in April. The

corresponding shipments rose a decent 0.3% too and core orders are running 3.2% Amanda Wilcox

above core shipments. Economist

amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

Overall, the activity data today suggest slightly softer real spending in Q2 and potentially

Jalen Nichols

a little more strength in investment in the quarter but we will dig through the details and

refine our estimates. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model revised down to 2.54% from jalen.nichols@ubs.com

3.04% on today's data moving to be more in line with where we are tracking for the +1-212-882 6905

quarter.