First Read Trip.com 1Q26 earnings review: industry headwinds and regulation overhang dampen near-term outlook

Research evidence excerpt

First Read Trip.com 1Q26 earnings review: industry headwinds and regulation overhang dampen near-term outlook

Global Research

25 June 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesTrip.com

1Q26 earnings review: industry headwinds and China

regulation overhang dampen near-term outlook Internet Services

12-month rating Buy

12m price target US$70.00

Soft 2Q guide despite 1Q beat; regulatory overhang remains key concern

Prior : US$80.00

Trip.com delivered a revenue/OP beat in 1Q26 (note), but guided to soft 2Q revenue

growth of 3-8% YoY, due to elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty and operational Price (25 Jun 2026) US$46.30

adjustments. On accommodation, we believe higher oil prices could weigh on travel RIC: TCOM.O BBG: TCOM US

demand and spend, as higher airfares reduce consumers' budget allocation to hotels.

Trading data and key metrics

This could lead overall accommodation revenue growth to slow to 10% YoY in 2Q (vs.

17% in 1Q26). On transportation, we expect 2Q revenue to decline low single digit 52-wk range US$78.96-45.10

YoY, mainly dragged by domestic transportation (UBSe: 20%+ decline). This reflects Market cap. US$30.2b

lower train-ticketing revenue following external policy adjustments, as well as pressure Shares o/s 652m (ORD)

from higher air-ticket fuel surcharges on travel demand and value-added services Free float 91%

monetisation. Trading at 11x 2026E PE, we believe the industry headwinds have been Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,640

largely priced in, but regulatory uncertainty remains a key overhang, with further Avg. daily value (m) US$131.9

operational adjustments potentially weighing on earnings. That said, we remain positive Common s/h equity (12/26E) Rmb185b

on TCOM's long-term thesis, underpinned by a stable competitive landscape, continued P/BV (12/26E) 1.1x