Japan Autos, Auto Parts and Auto-tech Sector: Implications of Cox Automotive’s US market review

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Autos, Auto Parts and Auto-tech Sector: Implications of Cox Automotive’s US market review

Global Research

25 June 2026ab

Japan Autos, Auto Parts and Auto-tech Equities

JapanSector

Automobiles

Implications of Cox Automotive’s US market

Kohei Takahashi

review Analyst

kohei.takahashi@ubs.com

+81-3-5208 6172

Mao Eguchi

Segment mix worsening as new-vehicle affordability declines

Associate Analyst

Cox Automotive has released its CY26 mid-year review. Noting that income growth has mao.eguchi@ubs.com

not kept pace with rising vehicle ownership costs driven by inflation and tariffs, the +81-3-5208 6242

company concludes that new-vehicle affordability continues to decline. The review also

points out that the positive wealth effect from rising equity markets and other asset

gains is concentrated among only a very limited number of segments and customers. In

the context of a K-shaped US economy, we have a Buy rating on Toyota, which could

capture demand in the higher-end segments of the new-car market. In contrast, we

have Sell ratings on Subaru and Nissan because the profit contribution from the US is

substantial and we expect them to be negatively impacted by the decline in new-vehicle

affordability.

Big differences between companies

Within the major mid-size SUV segment, the gap between the base Manufacturer’s

Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) and average MSRP (Figure 1) is $6,000-$10,000 (20-

30%), indicating that most consumers are not purchasing base models. Differences

across models are also substantial. While the spread in base MSRP across models is about

$3,000, the spread in the average MSRP widens by 50% to about $5,000. Furthermore,

no clear correlation is apparent when comparing sales volumes (Figure 2) with MSRP

(Figure 1).