Fundamentals Not Catching Up - Downgrade to Hold

Research evidence excerpt

Fundamentals Not Catching Up - Downgrade to Hold

France | Lodging

Accor EquityJuneResearch26, 2026

RATING | TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEFundamentals Not Catching Up - Downgrade

RATING HOLD (BUY)to Hold

PRICE €50.04^

We downgrade Accor to Hold and reduce our PT to €52 (from €55). While

a rapid recovery in the Middle East (~12% of rooms revenue) is likely, it PRICE TARGET | % TO PT €52.00 (€55.00) | +4%

appears largely priced into consensus expectations. More importantly, our 52W HIGH-LOW €50.34 - €37.54

analysis highlights the underperformance in the core M&F business, which FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 98.1% | 46.34

together with the higher risk profile relative to peers leave little scope for a MARKET CAP €11.8B | $13.3B

re-rating on 22.7x NTM P/E. TICKER AC FP ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Downgrading to Hold - Little scope for re-rating: we reduce our PT to €52 as we trim our

estimates by c.4% (c.3% below consensus). While the Middle East recovery could support

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

earnings momentum into FY27, it appears largely priced in, and we see limited scope for

2026 2027 2026 2027

valuation re-rating given the higher risk profile and the core business underperformance. Our

PT implies NTM P/E of c.23.5x, or c.20% discount to our targeted IHG multiples. REV* -2% -1% -5% -4%

EBITDA -3% -4% -2% -3%

Assessing the operating performance - core business lagging: execution risk has been an

overhang on the stock historically, although investor sentiment has improved over the past two 2026 (€) 1Half 2Half FY

years. Our analysis highlights the under-performance of the 'Management & Franchise' (M&F) EBITDA -- -- 1,258.1

division, delivering below expectations under the current strategic plan (2023-27): (1) the PREV 1,292.3