The Real Estate Stress Test: Vietnam | Banks

Research evidence excerpt

The Real Estate Stress Test: Vietnam | Banks

servicing pipeline, with majority backloaded in 2H). At 78.077.0

the same time, Decree 200/2026 (effective 5-Jun) tightens issuance standards, limiting debt . VCB BID MBB TCB ACB

Source: Companies, Jefferies estimates

rollovers and raising the risk of selective stress among weaker developers. Exhibit 2 - % of FY25 loan book in RE and

construction

Stress-testing the sector. We assess the impact through a property stress test covering

developer loans, mortgages and corporate bond exposures (we assume all corporate bonds ACB 5.0%

are property related). The exercise is intended to assess balance-sheet resilience rather than MBBBID 13.0%15.0%

forecast our base case. Our Adverse scenario assumes a sharp property correction while VCB 16.0%

our Severe scenario reflects a disorderly refinancing shock. Even under these deliberately TCB 30.0%

conservative assumptions, all five banks remain above regulatory capital requirements, 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

suggesting that any downturn is more likely to weigh on earnings than threaten systemic .Source: Companies, Jefferies estimates

solvency. Exhibit 3 - Potential impact on FY26 PBT under

the various scenarios

Key findings. ACB appears the most resilient given its limited developer exposure and highly Bank Base Adverse Severe

ACB 0.1% 9.0% 23.3%

collaterised loan book. BID is most pressured from a capital perspective, with CAR falling VCB 0.0% 13.6% 43.6%

to 8.8%/ 8.1% under the Adverse and Severe scenarios, only modestly above the regulatory TCB (adj)* 0.2% 14.3% 62.8%

minimum. TCB is the most earnings-sensitive given highest RE exposure, but retains the MBB 0.4% 15.5% 42.2%

strongest capital buffers, with CAR at 13.6%/ 12.0%, respectively.